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Trade disputes cause oil market supply and demand concerns









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发表于 2018-8-24 16:23:13 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
On Friday (August 24th), China's INE crude oil futures contract SC1812 closed at 511.8 yuan / barrel, an increase of 0.61%. Although the escalating trade dispute between China and the United States has put pressure on demand, the market has digested the news and the oil price has remained above 510 yuan.

Sino-US trade disputes have intensified, and the two sides have imposed a 25% tariff on goods worth $16 billion. Since the beginning of July, the world's two largest economies have imposed tariffs on a total of $100 billion in products.

In addition, the US government is holding a hearing on a proposal to impose tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese imports. Once the US confirms its implementation, China will almost certainly make countermeasures.

Trade disputes cause oil market supply and demand concerns

The market is trying to balance concerns about a slowdown in global demand growth and concerns about how much oil will be added by Saudi Arabia and Russia. But the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the escalation of trade tensions will lead to a slowdown in economic growth, which in turn will reduce oil demand.

This week, the two-day trade talks between China and the United States have ended and no major breakthroughs have been made. White House spokesperson Lindsay Walters said the two sides exchanged views on how to achieve fairness, balance and reciprocity in economic relations.

Moody's Investors Service said that as the trade crisis continues to intensify, it will reduce the real GDP growth forecast for the United States by 0.25% and by 2.3% by 2019. It is worth noting that the fermentation of this trade crisis has led analysts to cut their expectations for energy consumption.

Oil-producing countries are expected to reach a mechanism to monitor crude oil production

The Kuwaiti oil minister said this week that OPEC and other non-OPEC oil producers are expected to reach a mechanism to monitor their crude oil production by the end of this year.

The committee will meet in Algeria on September 23 and will be chaired by Saudi Arabia, including OPEC members Algeria, Kuwait, UAE and Venezuela, as well as non-OPEC Oman and Russia to ensure that the oil market remains stable.

Iran’s request to attend the conference to defend its market share may be affected by US sanctions, which will have an impact on its oil industry in November.

OPEC agreed that Russia and other oil-producing allies will increase production from July. Saudi Arabia said the agreement allows countries to produce more products to meet the group's overall level of integration.

This means that some members, as such, can make up for the deficiencies elsewhere. Iran, which faces US sanctions, has a negative attitude and criticized Saudi Arabia for raising production to above target levels.

Sinopec is expected to resume procurement of US crude oil

According to informed sources, Sinopec will resume its purchase of US crude oil in October after a two-month suspension due to trade disputes between the world's two largest economies.

After excluding US oil from the list of import tariffs in early August, China once again decided to purchase crude oil from the United States. It is unclear how much US oil will be purchased by Sinopec, but it is expected that China’s resumption of US oil purchases will not last long.

However, it is unclear whether all US crude oil purchased by Sinopec will eventually flow into China. It is reported that October crude oil is prepared for third-party transactions, which means that these crude oil may be sold in other countries and eventually sold to other countries.

According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), before the outbreak of trade disputes, China imported more crude oil than Canada in the first five months of this year, importing nearly 350,000 barrels per day, making it the largest importer of US crude oil.


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