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The price of gold is difficult to take off again.









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发表于 2018-9-5 16:28:09 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
During the Asian session on September 5, spot gold oscillated slightly after the opening. After a brief adjustment to the US Labor Day holiday, the US dollar index chose to continue to break through and surpass important resistance levels such as 95.4 and 95.6-95.7. In particular, after the US ISM manufacturing index was released in August, the US dollar index continued to expand after the forecast exceeded a 14-year high. The gold price was basically at the lowest point.
In the news, Bank of England Governor Carney may remain in 2020, and the median expected probability of no agreement to leave the European Union is only 25%, which has driven the strength of the European currency. However, due to the pressure on emerging market currencies and concerns about the escalation of trade policy risks, the support for gold is very good.

Looking forward to the day, Canada and the United States will resume the North American free trade negotiations. There will be a Bank of Canada interest rate decision in the day. Although there is no monetary policy statement and press conference this time, it is still possible to combine Canada's strong economic data and interest rate futures pricing. Raise interest rates in October.

In addition, US St. Louis Fed President Brad will give a briefing on the US economic situation and monetary policy. Although he is not a 2018 voting committee, the content of the briefing is also worthy of attention.

Gold technical analysis
From the 4-hour chart, after the third test of the 103-hour moving average, the effectiveness of support was broken. The technical break caused the stop-loss and speculative selling.

As mentioned in the article "Sololy Fighting Winter", as long as the station does not return to 1203-1204, it is to follow the descending channel that the center of gravity keeps moving down. At that time, it was already indicated at 1200 that the stop loss was small and the space below was large.

From the indicator point of view, MACD has entered below the zero axis and the green column is enlarged. KDJ is a dead fork at the low position, which is a signal to accelerate the decline. The average line chooses to diverge downward after the high position, and suppresses the price, which is also a bearish sign.

In the future, 1195-1196 will turn into a heavy pressure zone, which is the 103-hour moving average and the low position of the previous platform. August 30-September 4th actually cast a convergence triangle and then break down, so the 1200 integer mark is the starting point of this round of decline, and it is equivalent to the empty base camp.

From the 60-minute chart, the short-term will not be too pessimistic, which means that at least during the Asian session of the trading day, the spot gold decline will slow down.

The reason is that it first hits the lower edge of the red down channel line (currently moved to 1188-1189). The second stage low is in the 1188.99 position yesterday, at least so far has not broken this new low, taking the green triangle convergence in the picture.

Finally, the MACD has turned red under the zero axis, but this does not mean that the rally is only a rebound, and may even converge and then continue to explore the low. As long as the short-term can stand at the 13th position of the 13-hour moving average, the day can look up to the three positions of 1196.98, 1119.03, and 1201.63, which is a small structural correction for the decline of 1208-1189.

It should be realized that the 4-hour structure is the inverted duckbill below the MACD zero axis, which is an acceleration down signal, so the height of the rebound is limited.

In the downtrend, once again, the emphasis on finding high-altitude opportunities is not easy. Because if the market is irrationally killed, the underlying support channel line may be completely broken, and time is good for the empty side, so it is not worth the candle.

From the daily chart, it broke 1196, and the rising structure since 1160 is not very optimistic. 1196 is the three-in-one position of the semi-final of the Da Yang line on August 24, the 13-day moving average and the uptrend line.

Yesterday also said that if you use the black entity to carry a long entity Yin line through (black belt means that the opening is the highest point, closing at the lowest point, representing the full sky side of the absolute advantage), indicating that the empty attitude is determined.

Now there is a lack of anti-draw action, even if I can touch 1196-1198 on this trading day, go back to the support of the 13-day moving average, and do not change the short-term view. The crisis can be resolved unless the Da Yang line that quickly forms an anti-package is crossed.

Of course, if it is a relatively strong investor, it can not be determined as a downward trend from the strict level of the daily line, because 1160-1201 is the first rise, the callback to 1183 is not broken before the low, then rises to 1214, and now it is adjusted back to 1193. .

In other words, not breaking 1183 can not completely define the downward trend of high points and low points, but the author's tendency has been stated in the previous article.


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