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ING: European Central Bank's latest monetary policy outlook

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发表于 2018-9-5 17:09:23 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
On Wednesday (September 5th), an analyst from the Dutch International Group (ING) made a brief analysis and forecast of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy outlook. The main points of the bank's views are as follows:
As the European Central Bank announced in June announced that it will reduce the monthly bond purchases to 15 billion and the end of 2018 to end the bond purchase program.

In fact, as long as there is no real surprise in the Eurozone economy or inflation, the ECB can relax. There is no need to imply that the action is about to be taken, there is no need to prepare for the market, and there is no need to consider adjusting the communication method.

Although the rise in wages in several major countries in the Eurozone has not led to increased core inflation and trade tensions, and the risk of uncertainty in Italy's fiscal policy has risen, the foundation for the recovery of the Eurozone is solid, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to remain “autopilot”. status.

As the net purchase plan for the Eurozone's quantitative easing (QE) policy is coming to an end, the market focus will shift to the length of reinvestment and the timing of the ECB's rate hike again.

At this point, ECB President Mario Draghi made it very clear that interest rates will remain unchanged until at least the summer of 2019. This will give him two chances to raise interest rates before leaving office, in early September and late October. We believe that he will at least use one of these opportunities.

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