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Supply tightens oil price arrogance 3%









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发表于 2018-9-12 16:27:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
On Wednesday (September 12), during the Asian trading session, oil prices continued to strengthen. Oil prices rose sharply on Tuesday, rising nearly 3%, due to Iran's worries and expected US production growth slowed, while the API report showed that crude oil inventories fell far more than expected, unexpectedly reduced by 8.636 million barrels.
Up to now, the US oil reported 69.80 US dollars / barrel, the day rose by 0.79%; Brent crude oil reported 79.29 US dollars / barrel, the day rose by 0.29%.

Hurricane raging increases market anxiety
US oil jumped more than 2% overnight, mainly because the super-hurricane "Florence" further approached the situation on the east coast of the United States, which aggravated the investor's panic and led to a knee-jerk reflex.

As the strongest hurricane generated in the Atlantic Ocean this year, the eastern coastal region of the United States will be devastated before the weekend, and President Trump has ordered the emergency department to be on call around the clock.

Although meteorological data show that the probability of hurricane affecting the main oil producing areas in the Gulf of Mexico is not large, but under the situation that many external factors bring about uncertainty, investors have increased their bets on further increases in oil prices, and they still believe that they do not believe. It has no land to do more crude oil futures ahead of schedule.

This led to an oil price that once rose to the $70/barrel mark; and the unexpectedly sharp drop in API crude oil stocks also provided a “soul patch” for oil price increases.

API crude oil inventory unexpectedly reduced
US crude oil API stocks fell sharply by 8.64 million barrels, while Cushing's stock level in the crude oil distribution base also fell, which further worried the market's oil supply in the US market, and the oil price was further higher.

According to specific data, the US crude oil inventories decreased by 8.636 million barrels in the week ending September 7, and it is expected to decrease by 750,000 barrels; gasoline inventories increased by 2.12 million barrels; and refined oil inventories increased by 8.521 million barrels.

In the context of the previous hurricane and Iranian supply cuts, the inventory data has made the US oil price a step further and briefly broke the $70/barrel mark.

The tight supply situation in the oil market has made the market feel worried
The sharp drop in US inventory data is also inconsistent with the previously disclosed background increase in Saudi Arabia’s exports to the United States and the fact that US domestic production is still increasing, making investors feel lost.

Some analysts pointed out that in the absence of supply, and a number of US data show that the economic momentum is strong, energy demand will continue to increase, crude oil prices will continue to strengthen or the general trend in the second half. Longs have already bet that oil prices will rise to the $95-100/barrel range at the end of the year.

The well-known financial blog zero-hedged said that due to the chaos caused by the hurricane on the east coast of the United States and the related news from Iran, WTI oil price rose above the $69 mark before the API data was released.

According to API data, US crude oil inventories fell by a maximum of 8.636 million barrels, which boosted oil prices. Although the inventory of gasoline and refined oil recorded a significant increase, the increase in the inventory of these two refined oil products did not spur the kinetic energy of rising oil prices.

Investors worry that Iran's capacity will fall or exceed expectations
At the same time, the market is still concerned about the consequences of the Iranian embargo, and concerns over the country’s export capacity decline may exceed expectations, making oil prices even more unscrupulous.

The United States will implement a second round of sanctions against Iran in November, forcing crude oil customers to abandon Iranian crude oil. These signs also push up oil prices. According to reports, France and South Korea have correspondingly cut crude oil purchases to Iran, forcing Iran to withdraw some oil from the global market.

At present, the focus of investors' attention turns to the latest US EIA crude oil supply data in the evening. The current market expects crude oil inventories to decrease by 1,580,300 barrels, and the previous value is reduced by 4.302 million barrels.

As of 10:24 on September 12th, Beijing time, US WTI crude oil is now reported at 69.88 US dollars / barrel.


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