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Oil prices continue to receive good support

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发表于 2018-9-14 17:12:39 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
On Friday (September 14th), international crude oil prices regained some of the lost ground on the previous day, and concerns about supply overshadowed fears that emerging market crises and trade conflicts could weaken oil demand. Oil prices recorded the biggest one-day drop in a month.
As of press time, Brent crude oil futures rose 0.51% to 78.58 US dollars per barrel; US crude oil futures rose 0.71% to 69.07 US dollars per barrel. Cloth oil and US oil fell 1.66% and 2.12% respectively. However, the two cities are still expected to rise more than 1.5% this week.

A report by ANZ Research said: "The oil price continues to be well supported and the market is still worried about structural supply problems in other regions."

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday (September 13) that the current market conditions are tightening, and the daily consumption of global oil will exceed 100 million barrels in the next three months, and global economic risks are rising.

The agency said: "In 2019, several major emerging economies may pose risks to our estimates, partly due to the depreciation of emerging currencies against the US dollar, resulting in increased costs of imported energy. In addition, trade disputes escalate to the economy. Growth brings risks."

The decline in US crude oil production also stimulated supply concerns. US crude oil production fell by 100,000 barrels per day last week, down to 10.9 million barrels, due to the pipeline capacity limit.

China's August crude oil processing rate is the lowest in 12 months
Data released on Friday (September 14) showed that China's August crude oil processing rate fell to its lowest level since December last year, as oil prices eroded the profit margins of private refineries, prompting them to extend the time to stop production;

China processed 50.31 million tons of crude oil in August, equivalent to 11.85 million barrels per day. China's crude oil output this year was 1.2595 billion tons, equivalent to 3.78 million barrels per day, down 1.8% year-on-year.

US crude oil may rebound to $69.58
On the daily line, the US crude oil price failed to break the downward trend pressure line formed by the July 3 and September 4 highs, and the shock consolidation pattern continued.

Looking at the hourly chart, the oil price is too strong, and it has fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous up range ($66.86-71.26). It can be concluded that the irregularly consolidated (Y) wave has been opened, and the wave ruler has been opened. Inferred, (Y) wave 100% down target is 66.73 US dollars.

Subdivided (Y) wave, the first sub-wave has been completed at 68.35 US dollars, is currently in the rebound 2 sub-wave stage, the rebound target position to see 69.06 US dollars and 69.58 US dollars, they are (X) waves of 50 % and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

Brent crude may hit $79.58
Brent crude oil is stronger than US crude oil, and oil price is supported near 77.87 US dollars. The price is from the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $75.64-$80.11 five-wave upside.

At present, it can be considered that the oil price has ended (A) (B) (C) three wave reversal stage, ready to open a new five wave uplink structure. Oil prices have recently touched $79.05 and $79.58, with the former being the $75.64-$80.11 range with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the latter being the wave gauge's 38.2% target.

At 16:15 Beijing time, US crude oil reported US$68.94/barrel and Brent crude oil reported US$78.34/barrel.

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