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Brent crude oil refreshed nearly four years peak









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发表于 2018-9-25 16:26:16 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
On Tuesday (September 25), Brent crude oil prices rose again in the past four years, as the United States is about to impose sanctions on Iran, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is reluctant to increase production to support the oil market. The United States will impose sanctions on Iranian oil exports from November 4, and Washington is also putting pressure on global governments and companies to act in concert to reduce Iranian oil purchases.
As of press time, Brent crude oil futures rose 0.45% to 80.89 US dollars per barrel, the intraday high of 80.99 US dollars since November 21, 2014; US crude oil futures reported 72.35 US dollars per barrel, up 0.37%.

Harry Tchilinguirian, Global Head of Commodity Market Strategy at BNP Paribas, said: "Iran's exports will be greatly reduced, and given OPEC and Russia's reluctance to increase production, the market will not be able to fill the supply gap."

US President Trump has asked OPEC and Russia to increase oil supply to compensate for the expected decline in Iranian oil exports. But OPEC and Russia have so far rejected this request.

Ashley Kelty, an oil analyst at financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald, said crude oil prices could quickly hit $90 a barrel.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch raised its average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2019 from $75 a barrel to $80, and raised the US crude oil price forecast by $2 to $71 a barrel.

Sino-US trade war will seriously impact global oil demand in 2019
According to BP's head of oil trading in Asia, the US sanctions against Iran will make global oil supply tight before the end of the year, but the Sino-US trade war may threaten global demand in 2019.

Janet Kong, BP's senior director of supply and trading in the Eastern Hemisphere, said: "We are entering the most intense supply phase in 2018. Sanctions against Iran are the main factor, and the market will be tightened from now until the end of the year."

An Iranian official said on Monday (September 24) that Saudi Arabia and Russia will not increase oil production on a large scale because of the lack of spare capacity. The official predicted that oil prices could rise further.

Kong said that sanctions against Venezuela also exacerbated local production declines, production disruptions in Nigeria and Libya further reduced supply, and Brent crude oil was supported above $80 a barrel.

She pointed out: "The short-term fundamentals of the market appear to be quite biased by the impact of supply shocks. However, when supply keeps up and demand shocks become more pronounced, the market will undergo a new wave of rebalancing next year."

The escalation of Sino-US trade wars has caused global market volatility and ignited concerns about a slowdown in global economic and commodity demand next year.

Kong pointed out: "In 2019, I am worried about the impact of the US-China trade war, and its effects will gradually show up. The impact of the trade war has not really been reflected in the data, but as time goes by, its effect will gradually The emergence of the impact will be very intense and rapid, and the impact of the trade war will slowly emerge."

US crude oil or callback to $70.34
US crude oil hovered around the previous day's closing price of $72.27, while the upward 3 wave 61.8% target from $67.94 coincided with the nearby $72.25. The previous adjustment ((2)) wave was constructed with the convergence of (A) (B) (C).

Observed on the hourly chart, ((3)) The wave of the wave (1) is launched with five secondary waves oscillating upward channel situation, and the current operation is nearing the end, and the upcoming (2) sub-wave callback.

The lower target is $70.91 and $70.34, respectively, which are 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracements of the $67.94-72.74 upside.

At 15:23 Beijing time, US crude oil reported 72.28 US dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil reported 80.89 US dollars / barrel.


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