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Dollar bulls raid, making gold unprepared

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发表于 2018-9-29 17:07:53 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
The dollar rose sharply overnight, and gold fell sharply. On Friday (September 28), the US dollar basically kept the overnight gains. The basics are good, the technical side is more, and the US dollar is still more than the market. However, there are also callbacks in the short-term. You can wait for the adjustment. The bulls continue to market; the spot gold fundamentals are short, and the technical short-selling trend is formed, but the short-term deviation from the moving average is far, and it can wait for the short position after the adjustment is over.

US dollar index:
Fundamentals:

Yesterday, the US dollar index rose sharply and came to the 95-integer mark, the biggest one-day gain since August 10. Just before, the Fed just completed the third rate hike this year, and the eighth rate hike since 2015. The market expects the next rate hike or in December, it will raise interest rates three times next year. The US dollar index was greatly boosted by the expected interest rate hike. At the same time, the US economic data also performed strongly. The US durable goods orders in August were 4.5% higher than the initial value, the largest increase since February. The final quarter of the US GDP in the second quarter increased by 4.2% from the final value, and is expected to increase by 4.2%. The initial value increased by 4.1%; personal consumption expenditure (PCE) increased by 3.8% from the final value in the annualized quarter, expected to increase by 3.8%, the initial value increased by 3.8%; the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index increased by 2.1 in the final quarter. %, expected to increase by 2%, initial value increased by 2%, good data also supports the strong view of the US economy.

Technical side:

From the 4-hour level of the US dollar index, Lion Financial analysts believe that the dollar bulls began to attack strongly and form a double breakthrough. First break through the downward pressure line above, indicating that the market has shown signs of stopping. Then break through the upper neckline and the action of continuous positive pull of the positive line, indicating the strong position of the bulls. At present, the moving average starts to turn heads upwards, indicating that the trend is beginning to reverse. However, due to the excessive increase in the previous period, the forward movement is too large, and there is a need for shock or back to the moving average. At the same time, KD has already appeared overbought, and Lion Financial reminded that it should not be pursued here. You can wait for the adjusted long position to continue.

Spot gold:
Fundamentals:

Affected by the sharp rise of the US dollar index, the price of gold fell 1% yesterday. The Fed’s continued interest rate hike did not bring panic to the market. The panic index VIX performed steadily, indicating that the market has no hedging demand, which is very unfavorable for the gold bulls. The world's largest gold ETF - SPDR positions are also falling, the current position is 742.23 tons, compared with 865.89 tons on April 18, five months, the position decreased by 123.66 tons, a decrease of 14.3% . It shows that the bearish atmosphere is strong and the bulls are completely suppressed.

Technical side:

From the gold daily chart level, Lion Financial analysts believe that gold has already seen a significant break. Yesterday, Changhe filled a horizontal shock range of up to one month, indicating that the bears are coming. At present, the moving average has changed from entangled to divergent, and signs of short positions indicate that the overall trend has turned from consolidation to short. The MACD also successfully opened the dead fork below the 0-axis, again demonstrating the formation of short-selling trends. From the point of view of the K line, the current K line is still far from the moving average, and there is a need to wait for the shock or to go back to the moving average, and it can continue to observe. In operation, Lion Financial recommends waiting for the short form to continue after the adjustment.

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