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Hurricane struck to aggravate oil market worries

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发表于 2018-10-10 15:00:24 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
On Wednesday (October 10), during the Asian trading session, oil prices were under pressure. US oil closed up on Tuesday, ending a three-day decline. Because of fears that the hurricane will hit the oil-rich Gulf Coast region of the United States, data show that Iranian crude oil exports have fallen by more than half before starting sanctions next month.
Brent oil prices hit a high of $86.74 in October 2014 last week, while WTI crude oil in the US once reached a high of $75.20, the highest level since November last year.

Up to now, the US oil reported 74.72 US dollars / barrel, the day fell 0.32%; Brent crude oil reported 84.87 US dollars / barrel, the day fell 0.15%.

Hurricane threat is approaching
With Hurricane Michael approaching, companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico shut down nearly 20% of oil production. The hurricane is expected to land in the area on Wednesday, forming a three-level storm.

According to forecasts, Michael may be the most violent blow to the narrow strip (the location of the state's largest crude oil and natural gas field) for at least 10 years. The area was directly attacked by Hurricane Ivan and Hurricane Dennis in 2004 and 2005 respectively.

But the report shows that the hurricane's path will largely evade the major oil production assets in the Gulf region, but changes in this path may increase its impact.

Iranian crude oil exports frustrated
On the Iranian issue, data show that Iran’s exports on the first Sunday of October were 1.1 million barrels, far lower than at least 2.5 million barrels in April. At the same time, an industry insider who followed Iran’s shipping said that Iran’s traffic is even lower, less than one million barrels.

The United States will begin to impose sanctions on Iran on November 4. But this week there are reports that the Trump administration is considering abandoning some Iranian crude oil buyers, rather than the zero-shipment target originally set for penalizing the Iranian nuclear program.

Iran’s exports have fallen faster than most of the industry’s expectations, and many major buyers have stopped buying even before the US imposed sanctions in November. To fill this gap and lower the price increase, Saudi Arabia has increased production to near record levels, drawing 10.7 million barrels of crude oil a day.

Although the country has repeatedly stated that it will take all necessary measures to avoid the shortage, at last month's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, it said that the tap would only be turned on when it was clear that more crude oil was needed. As Saudi production is approaching unprecedented levels, it is uncertain how much supply the country can provide.

Crude oil monthly reports have come one after another
Some people suspect that the market may regain last week's highs this week before the US released crude oil inventory data on Thursday. Polls show that the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report may show that crude oil production will reach 2.65 million barrels. However, there are also concerns that this figure may be much higher after the estimated 8 million barrels announced last week is four times higher.

OPEC will announce monthly crude oil supply and demand reports and outlook on Thursday. On the other hand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release market results and expectations for 2018 and beyond on Friday. The IEA directly called on OPEC and other major oil producers to increase production on Tuesday and warned that high oil prices are causing damage to the global economy.

Due to concerns about US sanctions on Iranian crude oil and Venezuela's long-term supply losses, the Brent oil price rose to a four-year high of more than $85/barrel earlier this month.

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