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Oil giants have different views on oil prices this year and next

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发表于 2018-10-12 15:05:48 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
The heads of the world's major oil giants agree that Iran's sanctions will reduce the amount of oil on the market, exceeding the initial expectations. However, they have very different views on the oil price trend for the rest of the year and 2019.

At the oil and currency conference held this week, executives of the Vido Group, Trafigura, Gonvo Group and Glencore, combined with US sanctions against other factors outside Iran, predicted that oil prices would be between $65 and $100 in 2019. USD/barrel interval. These factors highlight the market's uncertainty about the price of oil.
Among these top oil traders, Ian Taylor, the chairman of the Vito Group, is the most pessimistic. He predicted that Brent crude oil would be only $65/barrel in 2019. Trafigura’s CEO, Jeremy Weir, is the most optimistic. He said that even if the oil price hit a high of $100/barrel by the end of 2019, he would not be surprised.

Vitol Group and Gonvo Group executives bearish oil prices
The chairman of the Vito Group, Taylor, told the media during the meeting that, from the actual situation, there was no shortage of oil supply and the supply was still sufficient. Taylor said that Saudi Arabia said that they have enough oil to supply all the buyers they want, which is true. In his view, there is no real supply contraction at all. When asked what level Brent crude oil prices will fall to on January 1, 2019, Taylor said that if the oil price is 5-10 dollars lower than the current level, he will not be surprised, because the oil demand is about to fall. arrival.

Taylor also said: "Iran's oil exports will be greatly reduced. If the country's daily oil production remains above 1 million barrels, we will be very surprised." He predicted that the United States may give some exemptions, but not too much. And OPEC is beginning to do its best to produce oil. He predicted that oil prices will fall in the future.

Another important factor that Taylor gives to the above pessimistic forecast is that he believes that future oil demand will fall sharply. Emerging markets are indeed responding to the challenges of rising oil prices and currency depreciation, so the future oil demand in these markets will be slightly reduced.

Gunwo Group CEO Torbjorn Tornqvist pessimistically predicted that Brent crude oil prices would fall to $70-75/barrel in 2019, although not as low as Taylor's estimate of $65/barrel. Concerns about a slowdown in oil demand growth, ample market supply, and Saudi Arabia’s inability to make up for the shortage of Iran’s oil have been overstated. These are the reasons why Tony Towest expects oil prices to fall from current levels.

Trafigula, Glencore executives look at oil prices
Taylor also pointed out that the Vito Group has just lowered its oil demand growth forecast for 2018 from about 1.6 million barrels per day to about 1.35 million barrels per day.

Contrary to Taylor's point of view, Trafigura's CEO, Jeremy Weir, chose to look at oil prices. The Financial Times quoted Vail as saying at the London meeting: "I am very optimistic about the oil market and oil consumption is still growing. So before talking about speculative factors affecting oil prices, the oil price situation before the end of the year is quite optimistic." He even said that even if the oil price rose to a high of $100/barrel, he would not be surprised.

Glen Beard, the CEO of Glencore's oil and gas, like Vail, also chose to look at oil prices. Beard expects oil prices to be well supported. The US sanctions against Iran are extremely harsh, but he believes that the real reason for the oil market turmoil is the risk of Iranian regime change.

Beard believes that there is no viable opportunity for the EU to use the payment mechanism to maintain trade with Iran. He said that he did not see any factors that would have a significant impact on oil prices. He expects oil prices to be between $85 and $90 per barrel in the medium term.

US sanctions against Iran will seriously disrupt the oil market, and major oil giants agree. However, their oil price forecasts are so different that they are only emphasizing the current mood of the market, and that is uncertainty.

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